How to upgrade my panlid?

[Anonymous]

Please read all my mathematical thinking before responding.

I just read on the forums that if you fail to upgrade with a scroll, it takes up an upgrade. I tested it on my bronze pride (never use it) and it's true. So now I have a dilemma. I was planning on buying tens of 10% shield scrolls to get +7 with all 10s on my panlid, but it's most likely going to be only 1 (which gives +5 weap def, +3 mage def, and +10 max HP), and there's only a 0.00001% chance that i'll get a +7. On the other hand, with 60%s, there's a 2.79936% chance to get +7, but it's slightly worse. However, on average, 60% scrolls will create a better shield. 100%s are cheap (only 35k per) and I have a 100% chance of getting +7. Now, on average, 60%s will get about 4 scrolls. This gives +12 weap defence, so it seems like the best. Unfortunately, that would cost 4.2 mil to buy the scrolls, which I don't have at all. Compare this to the 700k for the 10%s and the 245k for the 100%s. I want your opinion on what I should do.

[TehParwarriorSeven]

Try to do a 10% on the pan lid. Fails, toss it/sell it.

Try it again.

Keep doing it until it works.

After that use 4 60% Scrolls ^_^?

[Anonymous]

Well if your rich 60% =]

[xSanosukex]

only use 60% on panlid. 10% on weapons.

[Anonymous]

You should try to buy a few 100% scrolls for your weapons, cause if its like a lv 50 weapon that you bought for like 700k you aren't going to take the chance to waste a slot =]

[Anonymous]

Well so far everyone agreed on 60%, but here's a little bit more: I currently have around 550k, so I can't even afford 1 60%, let alone 7. What would you do with my budget?

although i do like the idea of tossing all the failed lids :)

[Anonymous]

Hmmm.... Well first things first you can give the failed lids to me =] Bera channel 18 please. :D Well for the moment, if you really need it I guess you should just go with the 10% scrolls. But if you got spare time try hunting to get around 1 mil so you can at least afford one =] But save up until like 3 mil if its really that serious.

[Anonymous]

Ok I'll give you my failed lids....If you give me 500k every time. :P

Anyway, I'm off for tonight. I hope to see lots more great insights from all you in the morning.

Here's my favorite plan so far:

1 10% (make sure it works) followed by 6 60%s (which i should get 3 or 4 of on average)

Cost: Panlid(about 500k)
10% scroll(100k)
6 60%s (6*600k)

that comes to 4.2 mil. >.<

[let_her_burn]

I'd do that master plan of yours that you devised.

Yep.

[TehParwarriorSeven]

You should try to buy a few 100% scrolls for your weapons, cause if its like a lv 50 weapon that you bought for like 700k you aren't going to take the chance to waste a slot =]

Just no. If you have a smexy weapon, you aren't going to waste 100% scrolls on it. I mean if like 4-5 60%s fail. Just 100% for looks and what not.

People have different prefrences, if you're poor people 100% it.
Mediocre, 60%
Pro/richslutbastage., 10% fail, buy another one, fail, buy another one, etc, til one works, and then 60% it.

[pyrofyr]

bestthing i could say is use a 10% on it if it fails sell it and buy a clean panlid
if it doesnt fail tehn your lid is already pretty good do now use a 60% if it works and our feeling risky use 1 more 60% then finish off with 100%s :D

panlids are overrated fences all the way :P

[Anonymous]

Those things? Ewww, You can just go to maple and rip them right off the houses =]

[TehParwarriorSeven]

bestthing i could say is use a 10% on it if it fails sell it and buy a clean panlid
if it doesnt fail tehn your lid is already pretty good do now use a 60% if it works and our feeling risky use 1 more 60% then finish off with 100%s :D

panlids are overrated fences all the way :P

Seriously, that's basically what I said.

[Anonymous]

bestthing i could say is use a 10% on it if it fails sell it and buy a clean panlid
if it doesnt fail tehn your lid is already pretty good do now use a 60% if it works and our feeling risky use 1 more 60% then finish off with 100%s :D

panlids are overrated fences all the way :P

Seriously, that's basically what I said.

And where did you say that...?

[Edit: 7.25.05 7:33pm] Ohh... now I see haha =] Woops

[TehParwarriorSeven]

Reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeead. Please.

[Anonymous]

Sorry but I didn't take my time. At least I corrected myself.

[TehParwarriorSeven]

Yes. I'm glad you did. Now let's mingle out of this guy's topic.

[Anonymous]

Heheh.... Right behind you =] Hope you get your pan lids upgraded.

[Anonymous]

10% all the way because it is like using 7 100% scroll. and 10% r cheap around 300k? :?

[HitMan]

Go 100%'s.. I did it on my 11 Def and now it's 18 Def.

[Anonymous]

You must be one rich assasin :wink:

[KitaeK27]

I don't get it. Go through all the work to get a 10% upgrade, and fail 90% of the time. Fail means I didn't work and the scroll is useless right? I haven't used one yet so i don't know, I'm afraid to use mine.

[Anonymous]

You should sell it. Its worth it because 1/4 of the time it fails. You can also get amazingly rich if you sell it like 5k~7.5k over. After that you can buy the same scroll and so on.

[TehParwarriorSeven]

I don't get it. Go through all the work to get a 10% upgrade, and fail 90% of the time. Fail means I didn't work and the scroll is useless right? I haven't used one yet so i don't know, I'm afraid to use mine.


People use 10% scrolls because they give more stats than 60% and 100%

Ex: 100% Bow Att Scroll +1 Attack
60% Bow Att Scroll +2 Attack +1 Accuracy
10% Bow Att Scroll +5 Attack +3 Accuracy + 1 Dex

10%s are just harder to get to work. ;) That's why people do the 'Scroll the item with 10%, it fails, buy another one and try til it works and then 60% it' Method.

[Blake]

Alright, I will tell you why you should use 10%.

The defense to damage reduced ratio is about 7 defense per 3 points of damage.

This would mean if you scrolled your pan lid with 7 100% (the cheapest option) you would reduce 3 damage approximately off of every shot. This isn't much is it? Scratch off 100%.

This leads you to 10%/60%. First of all, discuss the prices. 10% is MUCH cheaper than 60%, possibly five or six times cheaper. This would mean that you could almost FULLY scroll your Pan Lid with 10% instead of just 60%.

Now for the percentages:

10% of 7 would yield a 0 or 1 success rate on average.
60% of 7 would yield a 4 success rate on average.

Compare the stat bonuses per scroll and multiply by the number of average success rates.

A fully 60% scrolled Pan Lid would yield on average 8 weapon defense, and 4 magic defense. First of all, that is not much better than 100% scrolls, and it costs more.

Furthermore, you only need to succeed ONE 10% to outperform even a 7 60% scrolled Pan Lid.

This is because of the defense to damage reduced ratio stated beforehand. If you fully scrolled a 60% Pan Lid, it would yield 14 weapon defense and 7 magic defense. This would reduce 6 points of physical damage and 3 points of magical damage.

Take a look at the stat boosts of 1 10% Scroll. Weapon Def +5, Magic Def +3, HP +10.

The HP alone outranks the 60% because at most a 7 60% Pan Lid would reduce 9 points of damage (both physical and magical) and no monster even hits with both physical and magical at the same time.

Therefore, 10% Defense Scrolls > 60%/100% Defense Scrolls.

[TehParwarriorSeven]

Alright, I will tell you why you should use 10%.

The defense to damage reduced ratio is about 7 defense per 3 points of damage.

This would mean if you scrolled your pan lid with 7 100% (the cheapest option) you would reduce 3 damage approximately off of every shot. This isn't much is it? Scratch off 100%.

This leads you to 10%/60%. First of all, discuss the prices. 10% is MUCH cheaper than 60%, possibly five or six times cheaper. This would mean that you could almost FULLY scroll your Pan Lid with 10% instead of just 60%.

Now for the percentages:

10% of 7 would yield a 0 or 1 success rate on average.
60% of 7 would yield a 4 success rate on average.

Compare the stat bonuses per scroll and multiply by the number of average success rates.

A fully 60% scrolled Pan Lid would yield on average 8 weapon defense, and 4 magic defense. First of all, that is not much better than 100% scrolls, and it costs more.

Furthermore, you only need to succeed ONE 10% to outperform even a 7 60% scrolled Pan Lid.

This is because of the defense to damage reduced ratio stated beforehand. If you fully scrolled a 60% Pan Lid, it would yield 14 weapon defense and 7 magic defense. This would reduce 6 points of physical damage and 3 points of magical damage.

Take a look at the stat boosts of 1 10% Scroll. Weapon Def +5, Magic Def +3, HP +10.

The HP alone outranks the 60% because at most a 7 60% Pan Lid would reduce 9 points of damage (both physical and magical) and no monster even hits with both physical and magical at the same time.

Therefore, 10% Defense Scrolls > 60%/100% Defense Scrolls.


On average? I got about 3 10% overall scrolls to work in a row. and 6 and sometimes 7 60%s to work. o_O

[Anonymous]

There should be a program to find out if the scrolls going to work or not =] Saves you time and money, also you won't get cheated from it.

[Blake]

On average? I got about 3 10% overall scrolls to work in a row. and 6 and sometimes 7 60%s to work. o_O

Keyword being sometimes. That's called luck :P. If you wanted to get closer to the real percentages, try scrolling 1000 pan lids with 60% and 10%. I guarantee you the results will be closer to 4 and 1.

Average meaning:

60% x 7 = 4.2 rounded to 4
10% x 7 = 0.7 rounded to 0 or 1 (less than 0 is sometimes rounded down by people)

[TehParwarriorSeven]

On average? I got about 3 10% overall scrolls to work in a row. and 6 and sometimes 7 60%s to work. o_O

Keyword being sometimes. That's called luck :P. If you wanted to get closer to the real percentages, try scrolling 1000 pan lids with 60% and 10%. I guarantee you the results will be closer to 4 and 1.

Average meaning:

60% x 7 = 4.2 rounded to 4
10% x 7 = 0.7 rounded to 0 or 1 (less than 0 is sometimes rounded down by people)

Yeah. But most of the things I scroll turn out 'godly' or something. o.o

[Auxilia]

You got to have some balls in this game, i bought a 64 att bow for 650k thought: its good enough even now, lets try a 10%. All my friends told me i was a idiot for trying but it did work. You can always stare on maths and stuff. But sometimes it helps to just try and hope the best.

[TehParwarriorSeven]

You got to have some balls in this game, i bought a 64 att bow for 650k thought: its good enough even now, lets try a 10%. All my friends told me i was a idiot for trying but it did work. You can always stare on maths and stuff. But sometimes it helps to just try and hope the best.

Basically, you bought a oly for 650k? WHAT THE F*CK. I was so wrongly f*cked over in beta... WTF. a,fpsnasoinnfniaonfafin *Seizuer*

[Basia]

OMG this scrolls are expensive ... i never thought they cost so much and i would probably sold mine for 2k :D

[Anonymous]

=P I got a 10% cape scroll i'm going to save it up once i've reached my 2nd job adv. CANT WAIT!! =]

[Anonymous]

think of it this way.

with 10%s the odds against me getting:
7: 9,999,999 to 1
6: 1,111,110 to 1
5: 123,455 to 1
4: 13,716 to 1
3: 1,523 to 1
2: 168 to 1
1: 18 to 1
0: 1 to 1

with 60%:
7: 34 to 1
6: 52 to 1
5: 79 to 1
4: 119 to 1
3: 180 to 1
2: 270 to 1
1: 406 to 1
0: 610 to 1

As you can see, 60%s give approximately the same chance for getting 4 as 10%s give 2.
Also, it's almost guarunteed that you will not get 0 60%s to work, just like it's almost guarunteed you will not get 7 10%s to work.

Now i've failed with 1 lid. I'm selling my 6 upgrade one and buying a scroll in the Misc market (bera)

[Blake]

think of it this way.

with 10%s the odds against me getting:
7: 9,999,999 to 1
6: 1,111,110 to 1
5: 123,455 to 1
4: 13,716 to 1
3: 1,523 to 1
2: 168 to 1
1: 18 to 1
0: 1 to 1

with 60%:
7: 34 to 1
6: 52 to 1
5: 79 to 1
4: 119 to 1
3: 180 to 1
2: 270 to 1
1: 406 to 1
0: 610 to 1

As you can see, 60%s give approximately the same chance for getting 4 as 10%s give 2.
Also, it's almost guarunteed that you will not get 0 60%s to work, just like it's almost guarunteed you will not get 7 10%s to work.

Now i've failed with 1 lid. I'm selling my 6 upgrade one and buying a scroll in the Misc market (bera)

Meh, I'm just saying, succeeding 1 10% is better than anything else you could do with 60%/100% because of the +10 HP.

By the way, your ratios on the 60% scrolls seems illogical, how can 7/7 be a better chance than 4/7? .6x7=4.1

[Auxilia]

Basically, you bought a oly for 650k? WHAT THE F*CK. I was so wrongly f*cked over in beta... WTF. a,fpsnasoinnfniaonfafin *Seizuer*

this is what TehParwarriorSeven wrote (dont know how to quote)

im talking about a vaulter lol, bought a 64 att vaulter (+3 60%) rest is same.

[Anonymous]

7/7 is more likely than 4/7 because to get 4/7 you need to fail 3 times, and failing is less likely than succeeding (40% against 60%). So 7/7 is 0.6^7 while 4/7 is 0.6^4 * 0.4^3

[Blake]

7/7 is more likely than 4/7 because to get 4/7 you need to fail 3 times, and failing is less likely than succeeding (40% against 60%). So 7/7 is 0.6^7 while 4/7 is 0.6^4 * 0.4^3

That's like saying 100/100 is easier to get than 60/100 with 60% scrolls.

100/100 would be 0.6^100 while 60/100 would be 0.6^60 * 0.4^40.

100/100 would therefore be more likely to occur.

THIS IS INCORRECT.

Think about it. I believe you are comparing two probabilities of permutations which cannot be done to determine the correct percentage, as a mixture of failures and sucessions in any order is allowed which would mean you would have to determine the second using combinations. However, I am not sure of the correct way to determine the second.

Also, I'm trying to appeal to you that although 10% is harder to achieve, only 1/7 would be needed for it to be the best. Regardless of what you said, 1 10% is easier to achieve in 7 slots than 7 60%s would be.

[Anonymous]

oooh....very good point.

since 7 nCr x = 7 nCr 7-x, there is no bug in this way:

(i'm not messing up this time)

the odds can be calculated by:

1 / (7 nCr x)(0.6^x * 0.4^7-x)

where x is the number of scrolls succeeding

This works because for each combination, there are 7 nCr x orders in which they can happen, so we multiply by that.

this gives odds against 4 happening as 2.5 to 1 and for 7 happening: still 34 to 1, much more reasonable.